MANSHUR Blog
Insights on prediction markets, trading strategies, and forecasting.
Prediction Markets Explained: How Crowds Beat Experts
A deep dive into why prediction markets consistently outperform traditional forecasting methods, and how you can use them to make better decisions.
2024 Election Postmortem: What the Markets Got Right
An analysis of prediction market accuracy during the 2024 US elections and key lessons for future political trading.
Trading Fed Rate Decisions: A Strategy Guide
How to interpret and trade Federal Reserve interest rate markets using economic indicators and Fed communications.
Bitcoin Price Prediction Markets: What Drives Them
Understanding the unique dynamics of cryptocurrency prediction markets including volatility patterns and correlation analysis.
Improve Your Calibration: A Trader's Guide
Practical techniques for becoming a better forecaster and improving your win rate through systematic calibration training.
Forecasting vs Gambling: Why Stakes Create Truth
Understanding why financially-backed predictions produce more accurate forecasts than polls, experts, or casual opinions.
Introduction to Market Making on MANSHUR
How liquidity providers earn returns by facilitating trades and managing inventory risk in prediction markets.
How AI is Revolutionizing Forecasting
The intersection of artificial intelligence and prediction markets: what traders need to know about algorithmic forecasting.
Trading Geopolitical Risk: A Framework
How to analyze and trade markets affected by geopolitical events using a systematic risk assessment framework.
Building a Diversified Prediction Market Portfolio
Strategies for constructing a well-balanced portfolio across different market categories and time horizons.
The Global Regulatory Landscape for Prediction Markets
Understanding how different jurisdictions regulate prediction markets and what this means for the industry's future.
Ethereum Price Markets: Technical Analysis Deep Dive
A comprehensive technical analysis of Ethereum price prediction markets with key levels and trading strategies.
Overcoming Behavioral Biases in Trading
Common psychological traps that affect prediction market traders and evidence-based strategies to overcome them.