Risk Disclosure
Last updated: December 12, 2025
Trading prediction markets involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. Please read this disclosure carefully before trading.
1. General Risk Warning
Prediction markets are speculative instruments. You should only trade with money you can afford to lose entirely. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The value of your positions can go to zero.
2. Types of Risks
Market Risk
Markets can move against your position at any time. Events may resolve differently than expected, resulting in total loss of your investment.
Liquidity Risk
You may not be able to exit positions at desired prices due to lack of buyers or sellers. Illiquid markets may have wide bid-ask spreads.
Resolution Risk
Market outcomes are determined by MANSHUR based on publicly available information. Resolution decisions are final and may differ from your interpretation.
Operational Risk
Technical failures, system outages, or cyber attacks could affect your ability to trade or access your funds.
Regulatory Risk
Changes in laws or regulations could affect the availability of our services in your jurisdiction or the tax treatment of your gains.
3. No Investment Advice
Nothing on MANSHUR constitutes investment, legal, tax, or financial advice. We do not recommend any particular trades or strategies. You are solely responsible for your trading decisions.
4. Probability Estimates
Market prices reflect the collective opinion of traders and should not be interpreted as objective probabilities. Markets can be wrong. High-probability outcomes can fail to occur.
5. Leverage and Concentration
Concentrating your portfolio in a small number of markets or outcomes increases risk. We recommend diversifying across multiple markets and maintaining appropriate position sizes.
6. Emotional and Psychological Risks
Trading can be emotionally challenging. Fear, greed, and overconfidence can lead to poor decisions. If you feel trading is affecting your mental health or relationships, please seek help.
7. Tax Implications
Trading gains may be taxable in your jurisdiction. You are responsible for reporting and paying any applicable taxes. We recommend consulting a tax professional.
8. Acknowledgment
By using MANSHUR, you acknowledge that you have read, understood, and accept these risks. You confirm that trading prediction markets is legal in your jurisdiction and that you are making your own independent trading decisions.