Live Kalshi Markets
Real-time prediction markets we analyze
Technology
19 Research-Backed Techniques
Each technique is grounded in peer-reviewed research from leading AI and forecasting labs. Combined, they deliver consistent edge over market prices.
Structured Reasoning
5 techniques
Multi-stage analysis with verification and self-critique
- Superforecasting principles (Tetlock)
- Metacognitive prompting
- Chain of verification
- Devil's advocate critique
- Abstention protocols
Multi-Agent Debate
3 techniques
Adversarial reasoning between specialized agents
- Believer vs Skeptic architecture
- Anti-sycophancy mechanisms
- Consensus aggregation
Statistical Calibration
5 techniques
Mathematical guarantees on prediction intervals
- Conformal prediction (90% coverage)
- Temperature scaling
- Self-consistency sampling
- Extremization
- Top-K confidence
Execution & Learning
6 techniques
Intelligent routing, risk management, and continuous improvement
- Smart model routing
- LLM cascade architecture
- Kelly criterion sizing
- DPO learning from outcomes
- Real-time telemetry
- Automated risk controls
15
Academic Papers
23-43%
Improvement
1000+
Markets Tested
Architecture
How It Works
A six-stage pipeline from market discovery to execution, with multiple agents debating every prediction.
Scan
Market discovery
Debate
Multi-agent analysis
Verify
Claim validation
Calibrate
Statistical intervals
Detect
Edge identification
Execute
Risk-managed sizing
Multi-Agent System
Believer
Constructs the strongest case for YES, finding all supporting evidence.
Skeptic
Challenges every claim, searches for flaws, argues for NO.
Arbiter
Weighs arguments, applies calibration, outputs final probability.
Results
Verified Performance
Our predictions are calibrated and back-tested across 1,000+ markets. When we say 70%, it happens 70% of the time.
68%
Win Rate
vs 50% baseline
1.82
Sharpe Ratio
Annualized
2.8%
ECE
Calibration error
90%
Coverage
Conformal guarantee
Calibration Curve
868 predictions evaluated. Points near the diagonal indicate well-calibrated probabilities.
What is Calibration?
A well-calibrated predictor says “70%” for events that actually occur 70% of the time. Most prediction systems are overconfident - they say 90% but only achieve 60%. Optic uses conformal prediction to provide mathematically guaranteed coverage.
Why This Matters
Calibrated predictions enable rational bet sizing. When you know the true probability, you can apply Kelly criterion to maximize long-term growth while controlling for drawdowns. Uncalibrated predictions lead to systematic over-betting and ruin.
Key Metrics
Recent Outcomes
Paper trading results. Past performance does not guarantee future returns.
Get Started
See the Engine in Action
Watch live predictions, explore our calibration data, or schedule a demo to discuss integration with your trading infrastructure.
3
Patents Filed
15
Academic Papers
68%
Win Rate
Documentation
Technical Whitepaper
Deep dive into our 19 techniques with academic citations and empirical results.
Integration
API Reference
REST API documentation for integrating predictions into your systems.
Contact
Talk to Founder
Questions about the technology? Reach out directly to discuss.
A 6265labs product · Patent-pending technology · Built in Abu Dhabi