Will GPT-5 be released before July 2026?
Based on OpenAI's release cadence and recent hiring spree, I expect GPT-5 in Q1 or Q2 2026. Sam Altman has been dropping hints, and compute availability has improved significantly. The race with Anthropic is heating up.
Will the Fed cut rates in January 2026?
December CPI came in hot. The Fed has been clear they want to see more progress on inflation before cutting further. January cut probability should be near zero, yet the market is pricing 40%. Easy no here.
Will Argentina win the 2026 World Cup?
Messi's last World Cup. The team is still stacked with talent. They've been dominant in qualifiers. Home continent advantage (North America). I'm backing La Albiceleste to defend their title!
Will TikTok still be available in the US by July 2026?
The legal battles continue but TikTok has survived multiple ban attempts. ByteDance is exploring various options including potential sale of US operations. I think they'll find a way to stay operational.
Will Ethereum flip Bitcoin market cap in 2026?
Hot take: With ETH staking yields, the upcoming Pectra upgrade, and institutional DeFi adoption, Ethereum could finally achieve the flippening. BTC dominance has been falling since the ETF hype settled.
Will 'The Brutalist' win Best Picture at the 2026 Oscars?
After dominating the festival circuit and winning the Golden Globe, The Brutalist is the clear frontrunner. Brady Corbet's epic has all the hallmarks of an Oscar winner - prestige, runtime, and critical acclaim.
Will SpaceX successfully land Starship on Mars by 2028?
Starship is making rapid progress. Multiple successful orbital flights and catches. Elon's timeline is aggressive but not impossible. The 2026 launch window could see an unmanned Mars attempt.
Will the Chiefs win Super Bowl LX?
Three-peat incoming? Chiefs have the best QB, best coach, and a favorable schedule. Their defense has improved significantly this season. I'm putting my money where my mouth is.
Will US median home prices drop 10% in 2026?
Despite what permabears say, housing supply remains constrained and demand is strong. Mortgage rates are stabilizing. A 10% drop would require a severe recession, which I don't see happening.
Will oil prices exceed $100/barrel in 2026?
OPEC+ continues production cuts. Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East persist. China's demand is recovering. Supply/demand dynamics point to higher prices. $100 is a realistic target.
Will the FDA approve an Alzheimer's cure in 2026?
Several promising treatments are in Phase 3 trials. Eli Lilly's donanemab showed great results. While 'cure' might be strong, we could see a truly disease-modifying treatment approved this year.
Will Keir Starmer still be PM at the end of 2026?
Labour has a massive majority but challenges are mounting. NHS issues, immigration, and the economy could all cause problems. However, there's no credible threat to his leadership yet. Strong YES position.
Will 2026 be the hottest year on record?
La Nina is weakening and we're entering neutral ENSO conditions. Combined with continued greenhouse gas emissions, the trend clearly points to another record-breaking year. 2024 and 2025 both set records.
Will there be a government shutdown before January 15, 2026?
Congress is deeply divided on the spending bill. The current CR expires on January 10th and I don't see either side budging. History shows these standoffs often lead to at least brief shutdowns.
Will Nintendo Switch 2 sell 10M units in first quarter?
Switch 2 is the most anticipated console launch since the original Switch. Pre-order demand is through the roof. Nintendo rarely disappoints with launches. 10M is conservative honestly.
Will Apple announce AR glasses at WWDC 2026?
Multiple supply chain sources suggest Apple has been ramping up AR component production. Tim Cook has hinted at major announcements. The Vision Pro was just the beginning - consumer AR glasses are next.