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20 posts with repliesWill Bitcoin ETF daily volume exceed $5B in December 2025?
Bitcoin ETF volumes have been consistently growing. With institutional adoption increasing and the halving effect kicking in, I think we'll see record volumes this month. Current average is around $3.2B.
Will there be a government shutdown before January 15, 2026?
Congress is deeply divided on the spending bill. The current CR expires on January 10th and I don't see either side budging. History shows these standoffs often lead to at least brief shutdowns.
Will the Chiefs win Super Bowl LX?
Three-peat incoming? Chiefs have the best QB, best coach, and a favorable schedule. Their defense has improved significantly this season. I'm putting my money where my mouth is.
Will Apple announce AR glasses at WWDC 2026?
Multiple supply chain sources suggest Apple has been ramping up AR component production. Tim Cook has hinted at major announcements. The Vision Pro was just the beginning - consumer AR glasses are next.
Will the Fed cut rates in January 2026?
December CPI came in hot. The Fed has been clear they want to see more progress on inflation before cutting further. January cut probability should be near zero, yet the market is pricing 40%. Easy no here.
Will 2026 be the hottest year on record?
La Nina is weakening and we're entering neutral ENSO conditions. Combined with continued greenhouse gas emissions, the trend clearly points to another record-breaking year. 2024 and 2025 both set records.
Will 'The Brutalist' win Best Picture at the 2026 Oscars?
After dominating the festival circuit and winning the Golden Globe, The Brutalist is the clear frontrunner. Brady Corbet's epic has all the hallmarks of an Oscar winner - prestige, runtime, and critical acclaim.
Will Ethereum flip Bitcoin market cap in 2026?
Hot take: With ETH staking yields, the upcoming Pectra upgrade, and institutional DeFi adoption, Ethereum could finally achieve the flippening. BTC dominance has been falling since the ETF hype settled.
Will GPT-5 be released before July 2026?
Based on OpenAI's release cadence and recent hiring spree, I expect GPT-5 in Q1 or Q2 2026. Sam Altman has been dropping hints, and compute availability has improved significantly. The race with Anthropic is heating up.
Will the FDA approve an Alzheimer's cure in 2026?
Several promising treatments are in Phase 3 trials. Eli Lilly's donanemab showed great results. While 'cure' might be strong, we could see a truly disease-modifying treatment approved this year.
Will there be a major AI safety incident in 2026?
As AI systems become more powerful and widely deployed, the probability of a significant incident increases. Whether it's a major hallucination causing financial damage or an autonomous system causing harm, something is bound to happen.
Will Argentina win the 2026 World Cup?
Messi's last World Cup. The team is still stacked with talent. They've been dominant in qualifiers. Home continent advantage (North America). I'm backing La Albiceleste to defend their title!
Will SpaceX successfully land Starship on Mars by 2028?
Starship is making rapid progress. Multiple successful orbital flights and catches. Elon's timeline is aggressive but not impossible. The 2026 launch window could see an unmanned Mars attempt.
Will US median home prices drop 10% in 2026?
Despite what permabears say, housing supply remains constrained and demand is strong. Mortgage rates are stabilizing. A 10% drop would require a severe recession, which I don't see happening.
Will Keir Starmer still be PM at the end of 2026?
Labour has a massive majority but challenges are mounting. NHS issues, immigration, and the economy could all cause problems. However, there's no credible threat to his leadership yet. Strong YES position.
Will NVIDIA hit $200/share before April 2026?
AI demand shows no signs of slowing. Blackwell chips are sold out through 2026. Data center spending is accelerating. At current trajectory, $200 is very achievable in the next few months.
Will oil prices exceed $100/barrel in 2026?
OPEC+ continues production cuts. Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East persist. China's demand is recovering. Supply/demand dynamics point to higher prices. $100 is a realistic target.
Will Nintendo Switch 2 sell 10M units in first quarter?
Switch 2 is the most anticipated console launch since the original Switch. Pre-order demand is through the roof. Nintendo rarely disappoints with launches. 10M is conservative honestly.
Will TikTok still be available in the US by July 2026?
The legal battles continue but TikTok has survived multiple ban attempts. ByteDance is exploring various options including potential sale of US operations. I think they'll find a way to stay operational.
Will S&P 500 close above 7000 by end of 2026?
Current level ~6800. AI productivity gains are just starting to show in earnings. Corporate margins remain strong. Fed is done hiking. 7000 by year end is very achievable - that's only ~3% growth.