Make a Prediction
Will the US enter a recession in 2026?
Resolves YES if NBER declares a recession starting in 2026.
Price History
28¢
+0.0%
Outcomes
News & Context
Fed holds rates, signals patience amid inflation concerns
Reuters · 12/12/2025
December CPI comes in hot at 3.2%, above expectations
Bloomberg · 12/12/2025
Bitcoin surges past $105k as institutional demand grows
CoinDesk · 12/11/2025
OpenAI announces major breakthrough in reasoning capabilities
TechCrunch · 12/11/2025
S&P 500 closes at record high amid tech rally
CNBC · 12/10/2025
World Cup 2026 preparations on track, FIFA confirms
ESPN · 12/10/2025
Ukraine peace talks show signs of progress
BBC · 12/10/2025
Tesla FSD v13 shows impressive autonomous driving results
Electrek · 12/9/2025
Community Intelligence
67%
Bullish
3
Intelligence Briefs
280
Upvotes
CME FedWatch Tool shows 87% probability of rate cut. Historical pattern analysis of Fed communications suggests strong dovish pivot incoming.
Core PCE remains elevated at 2.8%. Fed's own projections suggest patience. Markets are overpricing the cut probability.
Recent Fed minutes show growing concern about labor market softening. Powell's Jackson Hole speech hinted at dovish turn.
Recent Trades
"Fed futures pricing in cut"
"Inflation still too high"
"Technical analysis shows support"