Your first trade

Making Your First Trade

Ready to make your first prediction? This guide walks you through the entire process step by step.

Before You Start

Make sure you have:

• ✅ Created and verified your account
• ✅ Deposited funds (minimum $10)
• ✅ Basic understanding of YES and NO shares

Step 1: Find a Market

1. Go to the Markets page
2. Browse categories or use the search bar
3. Click on a market that interests you

Tip: Start with markets you understand. If you follow economics, try an economics market. Sports fan? Start with sports.

Step 2: Research the Market

Before trading, review the market details:

• Question - Exactly what is being predicted?
• Resolution date - When will the outcome be determined?
• Resolution source - How will the outcome be verified?
• Current prices - What does the market think?

Example Market:

"Will UAE GDP growth exceed 5% in 2026?"

• Resolves: March 1, 2027
• Source: UAE Federal Competitiveness and Statistics Centre
• YES: 58¢ | NO: 42¢

Step 3: Form Your Opinion

Ask yourself:

1. Do I think this event is more or less likely than the current price?
2. What evidence supports my view?
3. What could make me wrong?

If YES is at 58¢:

• If you think there's a 70%+ chance → Buy YES
• If you think there's a 50% or less chance → Buy NO
• If you agree with 58% → Don't trade (no edge)

Step 4: Place Your Trade

1. Click the Trade button on the market page

2. Select YES or NO

3. Enter the number of shares (or dollar amount)

4. Review your order summary:

   • Cost: How much you'll pay
   • Potential payout: What you'll receive if correct
   • Potential profit: Your return if you win

5. Click Confirm Trade

Step 5: Understanding Your Position

After your trade, you'll see:

Portfolio Summary:

• Position - YES or NO
• Shares - How many you own
• Avg Price - What you paid per share
• Current - Today's market price
• P/L - Unrealized profit or loss

Step 6: Monitor and Manage

You have three options:

Option A: Hold Until Resolution

Wait for the event to occur. If you're right:

• Your shares pay $1.00 each
• Funds auto-deposit to your balance

Option B: Sell Early for Profit

If the price moves in your favor:

1. Go to Portfolio
2. Click "Sell" on your position
3. Lock in your profit

Option C: Cut Losses

If you change your mind or want to limit losses:

1. Go to Portfolio
2. Click "Sell" on your position
3. Accept the loss and move on

Example: Complete First Trade

Scenario: You think Bitcoin is likely to exceed $150K by end of 2025.

Step 1: Find the market "Bitcoin above $150K by Dec 31, 2025"

Step 2: Review details:

• YES price: 28¢ (market says 28% chance)
• Resolution: December 31, 2025
• Source: CoinGecko price at midnight UTC

Step 3: Your analysis:

• Recent ETF approvals are bullish
• Halving effect historically strong
• You believe 45% chance is more accurate
• 28¢ seems underpriced → Buy YES

Step 4: Place trade:

• Buy 50 YES shares at 28¢
• Cost: 50 × $0.28 = $14.00
• Potential payout if correct: $50.00
• Potential profit: $36.00 (257% return)

Step 5: Confirm and monitor in Portfolio

Tips for Your First Trade

1. Start small - Use $10-20 until you're comfortable
2. Pick markets you understand - Your knowledge is your edge
3. Don't chase losses - Stick to your analysis
4. Diversify - Don't put everything in one market
5. Keep learning - Track why you were right or wrong

Common Mistakes to Avoid

❌ Trading based on emotions - Use logic and evidence ❌ Ignoring resolution details - Read the fine print ❌ Overconfidence - The market includes smart traders ❌ FOMO buying - Just because a price spiked doesn't mean you should chase

What's Next?

Congratulations on your first trade! Continue learning:

• Order types explained - Market vs limit orders
• Reading the order book - Advanced price analysis
• How markets are created - Understanding market design

Happy trading! 🎯