What Are YES and NO Shares?
Every prediction market on MANSHUR has two types of contracts you can buy:
- YES shares - Pay $1.00 if the event happens
- NO shares - Pay $1.00 if the event doesn't happen
These are the only two outcomes. One must happen, so one type of share will always pay out.
How Pricing Works
The prices of YES and NO shares always add up to $1.00:
| YES Price | NO Price | Total |
|---|---|---|
| 65¢ | 35¢ | $1.00 |
| 22¢ | 78¢ | $1.00 |
| 50¢ | 50¢ | $1.00 |
Why? Because exactly one outcome will happen. The market ensures the prices balance.
Price = Probability
The price of a share represents the market's estimated probability:
- YES at 65¢ = Market thinks 65% chance the event happens
- NO at 78¢ = Market thinks 78% chance the event doesn't happen
This is the core insight of prediction markets: prices are probabilities.
Buying YES Shares
You buy YES shares when you think the event is more likely than the current price suggests.
Example:
- Market: "Will Bitcoin exceed $100K by March 2026?"
- YES price: 45¢ (market says 45% chance)
- You believe there's a 70% chance → YES is underpriced!
Your trade:
- Buy 100 YES shares at 45¢
- Cost: 100 × $0.45 = $45.00
If Bitcoin exceeds $100K:
- Payout: 100 × $1.00 = $100.00
- Profit: $100 - $45 = $55.00 (122% return)
If Bitcoin doesn't exceed $100K:
- Payout: $0.00
- Loss: $45.00
Buying NO Shares
You buy NO shares when you think the event is less likely than the current price suggests.
Example:
- Market: "Will Apple release a foldable iPhone in 2026?"
- YES price: 35¢ (market says 35% chance)
- You believe there's only a 10% chance → NO is underpriced!
Your trade:
- Buy 100 NO shares at 65¢
- Cost: 100 × $0.65 = $65.00
If Apple doesn't release a foldable iPhone:
- Payout: 100 × $1.00 = $100.00
- Profit: $100 - $65 = $35.00 (54% return)
If Apple releases a foldable iPhone:
- Payout: $0.00
- Loss: $65.00
When to Buy YES vs NO
| Your Belief | Current YES Price | Action |
|---|---|---|
| Event is more likely | Low (e.g., 30¢) | Buy YES |
| Event is less likely | High (e.g., 80¢) | Buy NO |
| You agree with the market | 50¢ | Don't trade |
Key insight: You don't need to be right about the outcome - you need to be right about the probability being wrong.
Selling Your Shares
You don't have to wait for resolution. You can sell shares anytime at the current market price.
Example:
- You bought YES at 40¢
- Good news comes out, YES rises to 70¢
- You sell at 70¢
- Profit: 70¢ - 40¢ = 30¢ per share
This lets you lock in profits (or cut losses) before the event resolves.
Multiple Outcomes (Advanced)
Some markets have more than two outcomes:
"Who will win the Premier League 2025/26?"
- Manchester City: 32¢
- Arsenal: 28¢
- Liverpool: 22¢
- Other: 18¢
- Total: $1.00
In these markets, you buy the outcome you think is underpriced. The winning outcome pays $1.00, all others pay $0.
Quick Reference
| Term | Meaning |
|---|---|
| YES share | Pays $1.00 if event happens |
| NO share | Pays $1.00 if event doesn't happen |
| Price | Probability estimate (65¢ = 65%) |
| Resolution | When outcome is determined |
| Payout | $1.00 for winning shares, $0 for losing |
Key Takeaways
- YES and NO prices always sum to $1.00
- Price equals probability - 70¢ means ~70% chance
- Buy YES when you think the true probability is higher than the price
- Buy NO when you think the true probability is lower than the price
- You can sell anytime - don't have to wait for resolution
Ready to trade? Learn how to place your first trade.