How markets are created

How Markets Are Created

MANSHUR creates markets on events that are newsworthy, verifiable, and interesting to traders. Here's how the process works.

Market Criteria

Every market on MANSHUR must meet these standards:

1. Clear Question

The question must be unambiguous with a definite YES or NO answer.

✅ Good: "Will the Federal Reserve cut interest rates in January 2026?" ❌ Bad: "Will the economy improve in 2026?" (subjective)

2. Verifiable Outcome

The result must be determinable from reliable public sources.

✅ Good: "Will Bitcoin close above $100K on Dec 31, 2025?" (verifiable via CoinGecko) ❌ Bad: "Is Bitcoin a good investment?" (opinion)

3. Defined Resolution Date

Every market has a clear date when the outcome will be known.

✅ Good: "Will SpaceX launch Starship by March 31, 2026?" ❌ Bad: "Will SpaceX eventually reach Mars?" (no date)

4. Resolution Source

A specific, reliable source is designated to determine the outcome.

✅ Good: "Source: Official UAE Statistics Centre report" ❌ Bad: "Source: News articles" (too vague)

Market Structure

Each market includes:

Types of Markets

Binary Markets (YES/NO)

Most common type. Only two possible outcomes.

• "Will X happen?" → YES or NO

Multiple Choice Markets

Several possible outcomes, only one wins.

• "Who will win the Premier League?"
• Options: Man City, Arsenal, Liverpool, Chelsea, Other

Numeric Range Markets

Outcome falls within a range.

• "S&P 500 closing price on Dec 31, 2025"
• Options: Below 5500, 5500-5800, 5800-6000, Above 6000

Market Categories

MANSHUR offers markets across seven categories:

1. Economics - GDP, interest rates, inflation, employment
2. Politics - Elections, legislation, international relations
3. Sports - Championships, matches, player performance
4. Technology - Product launches, company milestones, AI developments
5. Crypto - Prices, ETF approvals, network upgrades
6. Entertainment - Awards, box office, streaming records
7. World - Geopolitical events, climate, space exploration

Market Lifecycle

1. Draft

• Market is designed and reviewed
• Resolution criteria are defined
• Initial probability is set

2. Open

• Market goes live for trading
• Users can buy/sell shares
• Prices fluctuate based on demand

3. Closed

• Trading stops (usually at resolution date)
• No new positions allowed
• Existing positions locked

4. Resolved

• Outcome is determined
• Winning shares pay $1.00
• Losing shares pay $0.00

5. Settled

• Funds distributed to winners
• Market archived for records

Proposing New Markets

Have an idea for a market? We welcome suggestions!

Submit a market proposal:

1. Go to Markets → Propose a Market
2. Fill out the market template:
   • Question
   • Resolution criteria
   • Suggested resolution source
   • Resolution date
   • Why this market is interesting

Our team reviews proposals weekly. Markets must meet our criteria and have sufficient trader interest to launch.

Market Rules

All markets operate under these rules:

1. No insider trading - You cannot trade if you have material non-public information
2. No market manipulation - Coordinated trading to move prices is prohibited
3. Final resolution is binding - MANSHUR's resolution team makes the final call
4. Edge cases - Resolution details specify handling of unusual scenarios

Quality Assurance

Before launch, every market undergoes:

• Legal review - Ensures compliance with regulations
• Editorial review - Clear language, no ambiguity
• Technical review - Proper resolution logic
• Market making - Initial liquidity is provided

Key Takeaways

1. Markets must be clear, verifiable, and dated
2. Each market has designated resolution sources
3. Seven categories cover diverse topics
4. Markets follow a lifecycle from draft to settled
5. You can propose new markets for consideration

Learn more about how markets are resolved.