Market resolution process

Market Resolution Process

When a market's resolution date arrives, MANSHUR determines the outcome and pays out winning positions. Here's exactly how this works.

Resolution Timeline

T-24 Hours: Trading Freeze

• Trading may be halted on volatile markets
• Prevents manipulation near resolution
• Existing positions remain open

T-0: Resolution Date

• The specified resolution date/time arrives
• The designated event occurs (or doesn't)
• Trading closes if not already frozen

T+1 to T+48 Hours: Resolution Period

• MANSHUR's resolution team verifies the outcome
• Official sources are checked
• Resolution is published

T+48 Hours: Settlement

• Winning shares pay out $1.00 each
• Losing shares pay out $0.00
• Funds appear in your cash balance

How Outcomes Are Determined

Step 1: Source Verification

We check the official resolution source specified in the market:

• Government data - Official statistics agencies
• Financial data - Bloomberg, Reuters, exchanges
• Sports results - Official league/federation records
• Company announcements - SEC filings, press releases
• Crypto prices - CoinGecko, major exchanges

Step 2: Apply Resolution Rules

The outcome is determined by the exact criteria in the market description:

Example Market:

"Will Bitcoin exceed $150,000 by December 31, 2025?"

Resolves YES if Bitcoin price on CoinGecko exceeds $150,000.00 USD at any point on December 31, 2025 (UTC). Resolves NO otherwise.

We check: Did CoinGecko show BTC > $150,000 at any point on Dec 31, 2025 UTC?

• If yes → Market resolves YES
• If no → Market resolves NO

Step 3: Resolution Publication

• The outcome is posted on the market page
• All traders receive notification
• Resolution rationale is documented

Step 4: Payout

• Winning YES shares → $1.00 each
• Winning NO shares → $1.00 each
• Losing shares → $0.00

Resolution Scenarios

Clear Resolution

Most markets resolve cleanly:

• Event clearly happened → YES pays
• Event clearly didn't happen → NO pays

Edge Cases

Markets specify how unusual scenarios are handled:

Example: "Will SpaceX launch Starship in Q1 2026?"

• If launch is delayed to Q2 → Resolves NO
• If launch happens but fails → Depends on rules (usually YES if "launch" was achieved)

Ambiguous Resolution

If the outcome is unclear:

1. Resolution team reviews all available information
2. Market description is interpreted strictly
3. If truly ambiguous, the market may be voided (positions refunded)

Voided Markets

In rare cases, markets are voided:

• The resolution source becomes unavailable
• The event becomes meaningless (e.g., category eliminated)
• Fundamental market error discovered

When voided:

• All trades are reversed
• Original funds returned to traders
• No profit or loss recorded

Payout Calculation

Your payout depends on your position:

Winning Position:

Example:

• You own 250 YES shares
• Market resolves YES
• Payout: 250 × $1.00 = $250.00

Losing Position:

• Payout: $0.00
• Loss: Your original purchase cost

Resolution Notifications

You'll receive notifications:

1. 24 hours before - Resolution approaching
2. At resolution - Market resolved, showing outcome
3. At settlement - Funds available in your balance

Notifications are sent via:

• Email
• Push notification (mobile app)
• In-app notification

Checking Resolution Status

View resolution status on any market page:

Key Takeaways

1. Resolution follows strict criteria specified in each market
2. Official sources determine outcomes
3. 24-48 hours between resolution date and payout
4. Winning shares pay $1.00, losing shares pay $0
5. Edge cases are handled per market rules
6. Voided markets refund all positions

If you disagree with a resolution, see disputed resolutions.